Research Lab

League-wide patterns derived from 3,623 player-seasons (2016-2025)

RB Age Curve — Fantasy PPG by Age

Shaded bands show 25th-75th percentile range. Line shows median. This is the baseline expectation for any RB at a given age.

Median 90th / 10th %ile 25th-75th range

RB Career Archetypes

How RB careers typically unfold (152 players with 3+ seasons)

Early Bloomer
47%
71
Ascending
13%
19
Steady
21%
32
Late Bloomer
15%
23
Declining
5%
7

Early Bloomer: Peaks in first third of career

Ascending: Strong upward trajectory early

Steady: Consistent output throughout

Late Bloomer: Peaks later in career

Declining: Clear production drop-off

RB Rookie Development

Average fantasy PPG by NFL year and draft round

R1R2R3-4R5+

RBs typically produce immediately — Round 1 RBs average 10+ PPG by Year 1. The position has the fastest phase-in.

Key Insights — RB

Peak Production Window

RBs peak at 24-26 with a sharp decline after 28. The "RB cliff" is real — only ~10% maintain elite production past 29.

Archetype Signal

The most common archetype for RBs is Early Bloomer (47%). This means most RBs at this position produce their best seasons early.

Draft Capital Impact

Round 1 RBs produce 2-3x more fantasy points than late-round picks in Year 1. The gap narrows quickly by Year 3.